Developed by Donald Lambert, this method measures the relationship between a currency pair’s price, its moving average (MA) and the average’s normal deviations (D). It helps determine whether a pair has been overbought (overvalued) or oversold (undervalued). In the forex market, the CCI helps determine cyclical price trends, and when used with other oscillator indicators, can help forecast price uptrend/downtrend by identifying potential price peaks and troughs.

Other than Trending and Non-Trending Indicators, there is another indicator that can be used without conjunction with any other indicator: The Bollinger Band.

The Bollinger Band measures the price peaks and troughs with respect to previous prices. It was developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s and is the same as the moving average envelope, except that it is dynamic (while the moving average envelope is static) and it uses standard deviation to measure price volatility and not percentage (which is used in a moving average envelope).

The Bollinger Band works by creating a moving average and generating two expandable/contractible trading bands around it for market volatility. These bands are placed above and below the moving average at a distance of two standard deviations. They expand/contract according to the forex market trend, which means that when the price movement is volatile, they expand and move away from the moving average and if there is stability in the price movement, they contract and come closer to the average.

Two main uses of the Bollinger Bands are:
• Upper & Lower bands: The signal that the market is overbought is triggered when the closing price touches the upper trading band. If it touches the lower band, a signal of the market being oversold is generated.
• Price Break & Contracted Bollinger Bands: In conditions of low market volatility and contracted trading bands, the movement of price above or below the band indicates a market reversal trend. A trader should transact (enter a trading position) based on the price break direction. The situation under which the price closes inside the band is an indicator to exit and dispose off a traded pair.

More On Forex.

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watchlist for Tuesday February 9, 2010.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE: TLT) could be a buy if it moves above $92.30.

The Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX) looks to be in a near-term downtrend.

Declining risk appetite can be a positive catalyst for certain currencies, namely the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, risk aversion can punish more speculative such as the New Zealand Dollar.

Also known as the "kiwi," the New Zealand Dollar has been whacked on the European sovereign debt woes but stabilized a bit during the Sydney trading session on Tuesday. Stabilized near a five-month low that is.

This bearish trend makes looking at the WisdomTree Dreyfus New Zealand Dollar ETF (NYSE: BNZ) from the short side a compelling idea. BNZ is already down 5% year-to-date and any remotely positive news out of Greece could temporarily renew risk appetite, so playing BNZ from the short side needs to be done with caution.

After closing at $21.40 on Monday, BNZ is flirting with its 200-day moving, which may act as support, but a break of that level could take the ETF to $20. If you'd like to get in right away, that's OK, but set a stop at $22.20 for protection.

In an economy that is sporting only tepid signs of growth and with unemployment only getting better because less jobs are being lost, investors should want no part of the retail sector.

We have added ATPG Oil and Gas (ATPG) to the AAOI Portfolio. Analysis to follow shortly.

ETF Securities, the U.K.-based issuer of several precious metals-based ETFs, has plans to launch an ETF for U.S. investors that is backed by physical gold, palladium, platinum and silver.

ETF Securities introduced the ETFS Physical Silver Shares ETF (NYSE: SIVR) in July as a competitor to the iShares Silver Trust and the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: SGOL) debuted in September as a competitor to the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

ETFs backed by physical commodities have proven popular with investors as highlighted by the fact that GLD is the second-largest ETF by assets in the world.

ETF Securities recently introduced the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSE: PPLT) and ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ETF (NYSE: PALL), which have also been met with a warm reception.

Since the new ETF Securities ETF will remove physical metals from the market, the fund's introduction could cause a spike in futures prices as was seen with the introduction of the palladium and platinum ETFs.

PowerShares, which currently issues about 115 ETFs, is planning its first foray into the world of triple leveraged ETFs with the introduction of eight bullish and eight bearish ETFs. The move by PowerShares appears to be an effort to encroach uppen Direxion's territory as Direxion is the dominant issuer of triple leveraged ETFs.

To this point, PowerShares has offered traditional ETFs and some double leveraged products alongs with a 130/30 ETF, but no 300% leveraged ETFs. Despite the controversey surrounding leveraged ETFs, they gained $10 billion in new investments last year, according to industry data.

The new PowerShares products include Nasdaq-focused ETFs (the UltraPro QQQ and the UltraPro Short QQQ), a pair of Dow 300% ETFs (UltraPro Dow and the UltraPro Short Dow), plays on mid-cap stocks (the UltraPro MidCap 400 and the UltraPro Short MidCap 400), a pair of small-cap plays (the UltraPro Russell 2000 and the UltraPro Short Russell 2000) and an emerging markets pair (the UltraPro MSCI Emerging Markets and UltraPro Short MSCI Emerging Markets).

The remaining four leveraged ETFs from ProShares will include a bullish and bearish play on 7-10 year Treasuries and a bullish and bearish play on Treasuries with maturity dates of 20 years or longer.

China Investment Corp., the nation's sovereign wealth fund, has become the fourth-largest shareholder in the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE: USO), the ETF that tracks crude oil futures, by purchasing 2 million shares, or 3.48% of USO's outstanding units.

According to a filing with SEC, China Investment paid $78.6 million for the stake in USO. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) are also major USO shareholders, according to Bloomberg News.

China Investment also purchased a $155.6 million stake in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), the second-largest ETF in the world by assets. China Investment, which has $300 billion in assets, made $10 billion in commodity related investments in the second half of last year, Bloomberg reported.

Goldman is the largest USO shareholder. Paulson & Co. is the largest GLD shareholder.

Today, our financial system is so broken that casinos have much more integrity in their business dealings than banks.

Casinos Actually Have More Cash on Hand

The largest casinos in Vegas and Macau have much more cash on hand on a daily basis than most branches of the largest banks in the world. Whereas banks typically [...]

Two notable companies that will be reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon are The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU). Wall Street analysts are looking for Disney to report EPS of $0.39 per share versus $0.41 in the year ago period. In today's trading, Disney (DIS) shed 17 cents, or 0.20%, to close at $29.48.

Consensus earnings per share estimates for Baidu (BIDU) are pegged at $1.68 versus $1.31 in the year ago quarter. The Chinese internet company lost 1.24% today and finished at $443.23. Tonight on Fast Money, Tim Seymour said that he will be shorting this stock into their earnings release. The stock is up nearly 10% in the last month.

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) will be releasing their earnings report tomorrow morning before the market opens. Wall Street is anticipating the blue chip company to report earnings per share of $0.67 versus $0.64 in the year ago period.

In today's trading, KO lost 0.83% and closed at $52.65. Over the last 52 weeks, the stock has appreciated over 20%. Don't anticipate a huge move tomorrow after the numbers are released, as Coke shares are much less volatile than the market as a whole due to their high quality and the company's huge market cap.

Note: We have decided to reinitiate our position in KHD in the AAOI portfolio

KHD/KID spin:

Deep Value + Special Situations + Options = A Favorable, High Probability Outcome

KHD Humboldt Wedag International (KHD) is a spin-off/special situation with multiple near-term catalyst(s), a tremendous margin of safety and substantial near term upside potential.

The January 6 announcement that KHD’s board had decided to restructure the company into two separate legal entities: (1) a mineral royalty company and (2) an industrial plant technology, equipment and service company was met with little fanfare by the market despite the fact that this transaction will likely unlock tremendous shareholder value over the next 3-6 months.

Our view is that the markets “under-reaction” regarding the value enhancing implications of this announcement coupled with last week’s sharp sell-off (and the spike in volatility that came with it), has provided opportunistic investors with (1) a short window to purchase KHD at a ludicrously cheap price and (2) created some attractive prices for those looking to sell volatility and skew the risk/reward equation further in their favor.

Business Description:

KHD Humboldt Wedag International Ltd. is a world leader in supplying proprietary technologies, equipment and engineering/design services for cement and minerals processing. KHD through its subsidiaries offers their clients all over the world engineering services, machinery, plant and processes as well as process automation, installation and commissioning. The services include staff training as well as pre- and after-sales services through to feasibility studies and financing concepts. This array of supplies and services includes, in particular, the modernization of existing facilities for capacity increases and, for reducing the specific energy demand and the burden on the environment.

The company operates in two segments: KHD’s largest subsidiary KHD Humboldt Wedag GmbH (“Humboldt”) was founded in 1856, and designs and builds plants that produce and/or process cement, beneficiated coal, clinker, base metals and precious minerals. The Company has more than 900 employees worldwide, and has operations in India, China, Russia, the Middle East, Australia, Africa and the United States. Its other segment consists of what will now be a new standalone mineral royalty company, which will change its name from KHD to Terra Nova Royalty Corporation (“Terra Nova”), and would continue to receive royalty payments from the Wabush Iron Ore Mine (the “Wabush”) in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada under a master lease that terminates in the year 2055. Wabush has been a producing mine since 1956, and currently has proven reserves of 75 million tons representing approximately 15-year production based on historical production rates. Management intends to institute a dividend policy for Terra Nova shareholders. Going forward Terra Nova intends to focus on acquiring additional existing mineral royalties, providing capital for the exploration, development and construction of iron ore and other metals mines in exchange for royalties; monetizing metal by-product streams from either operating mines or projects under development; and providing acquisition financing to established operating companies in return for a royalty on acquired properties

Pre-Spin Opportunity:

How we are playing the opportunity…

By going long KHD common and short the 7/16/10 $15 calls/$12.50 puts in equal amounts, investors can create an options adjusted cost basis of $11.38. At $11.38, investors are essentially getting the royalty interest at an attractive price and the cement engineering business for free. This is absolutely nuts in our opinion as the cement engineering segment is a great business with predictable cash flows, a fortress balance sheet, a dominant competitive position and above average longer-term growth prospects. Granted, this is a cyclical business facing a relatively difficult near-term operating environment, and it may be a few years before things return to normal. But with that said, it’s important to note that it’s a matter of when business conditions normalize, not if…as cement companies, can’t put off their cap-ex needs indefinitely and it doesn’t necessarily take a genius to figure out that demand for their services isn’t going away anytime soon (this is a business that’s been around for 100+ years after all). Again, how often do investors get an opportunity to pay nothing to own a growing, capital light/high ROIC business that as it stands today, should generate northwards of 25m in free cash in a “normal” year?

Post Spin Opportunity:

Investors interested in owning KHD pre-split may want to keep a little cash on the sidelines, as their will likely be a fair amount of non-economic selling in KID shares immediately following the spin (due to its German listing, its small size, etc.), which will likely create an even more attractive entry point. Our hope is it gets crushed so we get the chance to load up at an even better price.

Valuation – Sum of the Parts:

The analysis below will show that the combined value of KHD’s core and non-core assets easily exceeds $25/share or well over 100% above the current market price (using historically conservative assumptions).

1 – KHD Humboldt Wedag International (KID)

An examination of the cement plant and engineering business indicates that KHD should be able to conservatively earn 400m in revenues and generate at least $25m in free cash in a normal year. Assuming $400m in sales and EBIT margins of 9% (which again, should be easily achievable if history is any guide) this business would generate roughly $36m in pre-tax profit. If we assume a 30% tax rate we are left with roughly $25m in net after-tax profit. With $30.3m shares outstanding that equates to .83 cents per share.

Considering the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of this business I think one could make a good case this business deserves a market multiple at an absolute minimum, but let’s keep it conservative and assign a multiple of 13x. That gives us a value on the operating business of $10.80/share. Add in the value of the company’s excess cash of $4/share, and we get a total value for KHD core biz post-spin of $14.80/share

Again, in our view the cement plant, design and equipment supply business possesses numerous attractive qualities, such as a (1) a capital light, high return business model (2) a fortress balance sheet (KID will hold nearly $4/share in excess cash post-spin) (3) a strong competitive position in a consolidated market – 3 players control roughly 90% of global market share due to intellectual property (KID holds nearly 500 patents and is third largest player with a 20% share) (4) a candid, fully incentivized management team with a long paper trail of value added capital allocation – notably, insiders collectively own roughly 30% of the outstanding common, and (5) attractive longer term growth prospects – this is a business that has a huge secular tailwind at its back as most of its business is derived from emerging markets (particularly India, Asia, The Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe), where cement consumption is likely grow at an above average rate for a very long time. Why? When developing countries like India and China industrialize, they need huge amounts of cement to build out their infrastructure, it’s that simple.

Anyhow, taking all of the above into account a 13x multiple seems on the low side of reasonable.

Note: The excess cash amounts noted above are net of the cash needed to run the day to day business (due to a project-related deferred revenue liability)

2 – Terra Nova Royalty Corporation

The value of this segment can be broken down into its royalty interest in an iron ore mine and a pile of cash. Let’s start with the royalty interest. At the moment, this interest is valued on the balance sheet at $200m or $6.67/share. This is a conservative as it implies a price for iron ore significantly below the current spot price (the balance sheet valuation uses the following assumptions: an iron ore price of $3.70/ton, 15 years, 5 tons/year, a 20% tax rate, an 8% discount rate, 2% escalations).

Next is the cash component which sits at $113m or 3.70/share. Cash is cash, so there is no need to make any further adjustments. Therefore, a conservative estimate of KID’s IV post-spin sits at $6.67/share (for the royalty interest) + $3.70/share (the value of the excess cash) = $10.37

We feel that the valuation above is very conservative for essentially three reasons. First, if one uses the current price of iron ore and similar assumptions, the per share value of the royalty interest jumps to $8.80/share. Our guess is that after the typical post-spin selling pressure subsides, the market will rerate the iron ore interest almost immediately and assign a multiple commensurate with current pricing. Second, management has stated that they intend to initiate a dividend policy as a newly standalone company. Our view is that after they do, it should begin to trade on a yield basis – resulting in the market assigning a higher multiple on the royalty interests existing cash flows and hence a higher valuation. Third, it doesn’t take into account the underlying supply/demand dynamic of iron ore and its relationship to global growth. We think it’s a safe bet that iron ore pricing will rise (potentially significantly) over the coming 10 years.

3 – Combined Value

The conservative sum-of-the-parts analysis above yields a combined value of roughly $25/share ($10.37/share for KID + $14.87/share for KHD).

Additional thoughts

In thinking about the value of the iron ore mine, we feel it’s helpful to keep a few things in mind. First, the income from the mine in any given year will closely correlate with iron ore prices, which are driven primarily by raw material requirements of the integrated steel producers. These requirements are in turn driven by worldwide steel demand. So the more steel needed in the world, the more iron ore needed to produce that steel. Also, and this is incredibly important, steel consumption/demand is considerably higher in developing nations in the process of undergoing industrialization (think China and India) than it is in mature or developed nations (think the U.S. and Western Europe), as they need to build out the necessary infrastructure to support future growth. Therefore, if one believes that countries like China and India (and other developing nations) will continue on the path of industrialization (i.e., that they will continue to grow in the future), then one must by implication believe that the demand for iron ore will remain strong going forward. To put it another way, Iron ore is an investment that will increase in value as the underdeveloped world acquires the means to increase their standard of living.

Also, investors must always take three things into account when analyzing the attractiveness of an investment in a commodity itself and/or a commodity business (for example, you can’t have a thesis on a natural gas company without having a thesis on natural gas itself – at least if you know what you are doing). Those three things include (1) the current price of the commodity in question, (2) its medium to long-term supply/demand dynamic, and (3) whether or not the current price is low relative to where it should be given the supply/demand situation. In this case, our analysis indicates that (1) the current price of iron ore is very likely low (all things considered), and (2) that there will likely be a sustained bottleneck in the supply/demand equation for the foreseeable future – as upward pricing pressure should be significant as long as the developing world continues to build out its infrastructure and raise its standard of living. The evidence suggests that producers will simply have an very tough time getting the iron ore out of the ground fast enough to keep pace with the large and growing demand (by growing we mean over 5-10 year intervals, not next month or next year). In other words, elevated prices are likely to be around for a long time, as we are not of the opinion that China and India (to name just two) are done growing yet.

The implications regarding this particular investment are numerous. First, understanding the above makes it clear that the mine is a valuable, high quality asset that should grow in value along with the growth of the developing world. Second, the amount of cash that the royalty interest is likely to generate in an average year (currently sitting at roughly $20m+) is likely to grow meaningfully – or at the very least remain relatively stable for the foreseeable future (considering the supply/demand equation and the pricing dynamic that results). Third, it should strengthen your conviction that the above balance sheet valuation is conservative.

Investment Structure (w/Options):

Leg 1) Purchase 1000 shares of KHD common @ 12.26/share 
Leg 2) Sell 10 July 10 $15 Calls @ .50/share 
Leg 3) Sell 10 July 10 $12.50 Puts @ $1.50/share

Cash outlay = $12,260 (common stock) 
Cash inflow = $2,000 (option premium)

Total net cash out of pocket = $10,260

Expected Scenario’s (potential range of outcomes):

If shares rise to at least $15 buy July 16, 2010

(1) The $15 calls will be exercised 
(2) You would sell your shares for $15,000 
(3) The $12.50 puts will expire worthless 
(4) You will have no further obligations 
(5) You will hold no shares and $15,000 in cash

In the best-case scenario investors would earn a total return of 44% ($4,740/$10,260) in roughly 6 months (assuming the shares trade north of $15 by July 16 of this year). Due to the variety of upcoming catalysts over the next three to six months, our view is this is the most probable outcome.

What’s the downside?

If the shares are less than $12.50 on July 16, 2010:

(1) The $15 calls will expire worthless 
(2) The $12.50 puts will be exercised 
(3) You would be forced to purchase another 1000 KHD shares 
(4) You will need to lay out an additional $12,260 in cash 
(5) You will end up with 2000 KHD shares 
(6) You will have no further obligations

Assuming the “worst case” where the stock closes below $12.50 and the investor ends up being “put” an additional 1000 shares, he/she still wins – as they would get a chance to double down on an incredibly attractive opportunity at a better price.

What’s the breakeven on the whole trade?

On the original 1000 shares it’s the $12.26 purchase price less the .50/share call premium = $11.76/share. On the “put” shares it’s the $12.50 strike price less the $1.50/share put premium = $11/share. Breakeven on the whole trade is the average between the two or $11.38 ($11.76/share + $11/share/2). Notably, with the stock at $12.26, the stock can rise, stay static, or fall a bit from today’s level and one would still walk away with a profit on the trade.

Downside Protection (Margin of Safety):

The combination of (1) a ridiculously attractive absolute valuation, (2) a fortress balance sheet(s), (3) the inherent quality of the underlying assets, (4) numerous near-term catalysts, and (5) a proven, high quality of management, provides investors in KHD with tremendous downside protection. Also, the utilization of attractively priced options in our view skews an already attractive risk/reward equation even further in our favor, as it not only lowers our cost basis but allows us to profit under a wider range of outcomes.

The long and short of it is that it truly is difficult to figure out how one could lose money looking out 2-3 years and beyond, as there simply isn’t much that could upset the applecart so to speak. There are no balance sheet/financing risks to worry about, nor any exogenous type risks – think political and/or legislative risk. Management is capable, fully incentivized, and focused on all the right things and given Chairman Smith’s long paper trail of savvy acquisitions and building shareholder value through buying, improving, and spinning off businesses, the risk of them doing anything stupid with their excess cash is very low (odds actually favor the opposite outcome). Also, considering KHD has a couple of year’s worth of business in its backlog (which provides significant earnings visibility), business should be decent for the next few years at minimum – as long as developing countries don’t stop industrializing, cement remains humanity’s building material of choice, and/or companies and governments don’t stop wanting to make their plants more environmentally friendly and efficient, there should be more than enough business to keep them busy…so there isn’t a lot of operational risk in the short or long term. There is certainly market risk in the near term, but our use of options and the presence of multiple near-term catalysts make’s this less of an issue.

Also, in light of the large amount of credit creation, quantitative easing, and dollar printing that has been taking place in the U.S. and around the developed world, it is reasonable to be concerned about the future buying power of the dollar, the prospect of higher interest rates, etc. Luckily the effects of these negative outcomes on the cement engineering business should be minimal, as this business (1) earns most its profits globally (over 90% of its earnings are foreign sourced) and (2) due to both its market position and asset-light business model, it should have the pricing power to be able to preserve its real earnings power in both an inflationary and/or deflationary world. Obviously the Iron ore interest would benefit in an inflationary environment as well.

The bottom line here is that KHD is a classic low-risk, high-return fat pitch – offering investors who get in around the current price the chance to make a considerable amount of money under any reasonable future outcome/scenario we can imagine. And better yet, sooner rather than later.

Catalysts:

Upcoming road show

Spin on 3/22

German IPO

Initiation of dividends at Terra Nova

Miscellaneous:

Spin-off press release

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/KHD-Humboldt-Wedag-prnews-1079435258.html?x=0&.v=1

We recommend reading Leucadia’s primer on iron ore (which discusses the variables that drive supply, demand, and pricing, etc.) from their April 2008 letter to shareholders for more color on the issue (pgs. 2 – 4).

http://www.leucadia.com/C&P%20Letters/C&P2007.pdf

Recent Business Week article provides some recent commentary on current pricing

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-07/iron-ore-prices-reach-a-high-as-goldman-sees-panic-buying-.html

Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) will be releasing their earnings report tomorrow morning before the opening bell. The First Call consensus estimates are that Biogen (BIIB) will report earnings per share of $1.05 versus $0.93 in the year ago period. In today's trading, the stock fell 1.29% to close at $52.84.

Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) is engaged in the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of therapies. The Company’s products address diseases such as multiple sclerosis, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, rheumatoid arthritis, crohn’s disease and psoriasis. The company's current market cap is $15.28 billion.

Two companies that are selling off in the after hours are Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG). Both of these names reported earnings after the closing bell today.

Shares of Electronic Arts (ERTS) have lost over 8% of their value after releasing a disappointing earnings report. The company beat Wall Street expectations, but failed to deliver the upside that many investors had expected. ERTS is currently trading at $16.00.

Hartford Financial (HIG) has moved 4.13% lower to $22.49 in the after hours trading session. Despite beating estimates, the company delivered full year 2010 EPS guidance which was underwhelming. Hartford (HIG) said that it expects to earn between $3.70 - $4.00 per share in 2010 versus analysts estimates of $3.96. Essentially, they offered almost no upside to the figures that Wall Street had been projecting.

SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), the European Software giant and Oracle Corporation (Nasdaq: ORCL) rival, Chairman and co-founder Hasso Plattner will take on a greater management role after the resignation of CEO Leo Apotheker.

Apotheker resigned after the SAP AG board refused to renew his contract, which was set to expire later this year.

The company appointed head of sales Bill McDermott and head of product development Jim Hagemann Snabe as co-CEOs.

Although the two executives are board members with decades of software industry experience, neither has played the role of CEO.

By getting more involved in management, Plattner will be expected to help guide the two new CEOs.

“SAP is still a major actor but it has lost its positive contact to customers,” said Frank Niemann, a SAP software consultant at Pierre Audoin Consultants in Munich. “Hasso is a software guru, a little like the Bill Gates of Europe. He’ll work more on developing technology. He has a very clear understanding of what’s going on in the market. But he can’t force the company in a new direction. That’ll be a challenge.”

In his first conference call with analysts and journalists in seven years, Plattner addressed the issues facing the company he co-founded in 1972.

“For a public company, profit is everything, but in order to be profitable it must be a happy company, and I will do everything in my power to make us a happy company again,” Plattner said.

Main Index ETF Market Leaders on Monday
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (NYSE: TWM) up $0.57 or +2.07% to close at $28.07
TWM daily volume for Monday was 5,166,368
Three-month average daily volume is 5,206,020

PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (NYSE: DXD) up $0.57 or +1.81% to close at $32.13
DXD daily volume for Monday was 7,118,012
Three-month average daily volume is 4,548,790

ULTRSHRT SP500 (NYSE: SDS) up $.63 or +1.63% to close at $38.46
SDS daily volume for Monday was 42,648,634
Three-month average daily volume is to the 32,194,700

Main Index ETF Market Laggards on Monday
ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (NYSE: IWM) down $.59 or -1.00% to close at $58.68
IWM daily volume for Monday was 61,579,247
Three-month average daily volume is to the 58,197,700

DIAMONDS Trust Series (NYSE: DIA) down $.94 or -.94% to close at $99.22
IWM daily volume for Monday was 10,921,264
Three-month average daily volume is to the 10,294,900

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is among the names that are moving higher in the after hours trading session. The stock has climbed almost 10% and is currently trading at $9.60. I was unable to find any news that could account for the activity in TIVO shares.

Another mover is Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN), which has appreciated 3.55% to $59.50 in the after hours. The movement in the stock appears to be linked to a positive press release regarding its prostate cancer drug, denosumab.

Unilever (NYSE: UL) announced that it had completed the sale of its Shedd's Country Crock brand to Hormel Foods Corporation after the closing bell tonight. As a result, UL shares have climbed over 7% in the late trading session to $30.89.

Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) is another stock that has gained in the after hours. Shares of ODP have appreciated 2.60% to $5.52 after closing the regular session down 1.82% to $5.38. There does not appear to be any news out driving the action in this name.

(NYSE: DIA) fell .94 or -.94% to close at $99.22
DIA daily volume for Monday was 10,916,174
Three month- average daily volume is 10,285,300
DIA short-to-immediate term resistance is its' 14-day EMA at $102
Support is at the $98 level

(NYSE: SPY) fell .77 or -.72% to close at $105.89
SPY daily volume for Monday was 224,042,251
Three month- average daily volume is 170,129,000
SPY short-to-immediate term resistance is its' 14-day EMA at $109
Support is at the $105 level

(Nasdaq: QQQQ) fell .31 or -.72% to close at $42.67
QQQQ daily volume for Monday was 94,323,061
Three month- average daily volume is 96,424,800
QQQQ short-to-immediate term resistance is its' 14-day EMA at $43.80
Support is at the $42 level

(NYSE: IWM) fell .59 or -1.00% to close at $58.68
IWM daily volume for Monday was 61,579,247
Three month- average daily volume is 58,259,000
IWM short-to-immediate term resistance is its' 14-day EMA at $61.83
Support is at the $58 level

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) made a proposal to lenders, asking to push back $5.55 billion of its debt by 3 years.

The proposal seeks to extend facilities from October 3, 2011 to February 21, 2014. The casino operator asked its lenders to approve the deal by February 24.

Moody's Investor Services said that it is considering upgrading its MGM Mirage because of the proposal.

Rajiv Goel, a former Intel Capital director, pleaded guilty on Monday that he had received money from friend and Galleon Group hedge fund founder Raj Rajaratnam.

"Although we lived very different lives, we kept in close contact and I received money from him for personal financial needs," Goel said in court. "Over a number of years, he made trades that made me profits."

Goel is a former director in the treasury group of Intel Capital, the venture capital arm of Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) who met Rajaratnam, founder and manager of Galleon Group, about 25 years ago at the Wharton School of Business at University of Pennsylvania.

Goel said that he and Rajaratnam conspired to profit on insider information about Intel Corp. quarterly earnings and Intel Corp. investments in Clearwire Corporation (Nasdaq: CLWR).

"I know it was wrong to give Raj Rajaratnam the information. I gave it to him because of my friendship," said Goel.

A sentencing proceeding was scheduled for May 28 and Goel faces up to 20 years in prison.

Tonight on Mad Money, Jim Cramer said that Hasbro's (NYSE: HAS) 25% dividend increase last Thursday was a signal that the company would report strong earnings today. Hasbro reported very good numbers, beating Wall Street earnings per share projections by 28 cents. The company's stock surged nearly 13% today to $34.71 after the report was released. This week Cramer will be highlighting other companies that have also increased their dividends of late.

Cramer called the quarter "magnificent" and said that he would be a buyer if the stock pulls back into the $33 range. According to the Mad Money host, Hasbro's (HAS) dividend increase is a very trustworthy sign of financial strength.

Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) is engaged in providing children’s and family leisure time and entertainment products and services, including the design, manufacture and marketing of games and toys.

CNBC's Fast Money Pete Najarian is thinking about Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN), a biotech company that is working on a new drug in a partnership with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE).

He said that MDVN has a drug that is in the third phase of research and its results are expected in March. The drug is called Dimebon and it may help patients with Alzheimer's disease and Huntington disease.

The second phase was really successful, but Pete Najarian is still careful because he knows that these kind of trades can either be a hit or a miss.

One way to make this trade is through Pfizer (PFE). Medivation (MDVN) fell 1.75% today and Pfizer (PFE) dropped 0.67%

Tim Seymour said on CNBC's Fast Money that he would sell Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) ahead of earnings. Baidu.com (BIDU) fell 1.24% today and closed at $443.25.

Guy Adami believes Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is a buy, and Gary Kaminsky wants to short Lululemon Athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU). Diamond Foods (DMND) fell 0.37% and Lululemon (LULU) added 1.14%.

Pete Najarian likes Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW). Lowe's (LOW) gained 0.79% on Monday and closed at $21.72.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) announced plans to furlough at least 300 of its 2,800 pilots. However, United Parcel Service and the Independent Pilots Association (IPA) will continue to look for ways to cut costs in an effort to avoid the work furloughs.

"Even though the economy has begun to turn around, UPS anticipates a very gradual recovery and a continued need for belt-tightening," said UPS Airlines President Bob Lekites. "This is a painful decision for our people, but one that is right for the on-going health of our business.

"But we haven't given up on this process," Lekites added. "We continue to go well beyond our contractual obligation to seek a 'win-win' solution to avert furloughs."

In order to avoid any work furloughs in 2009, the IPA presented voluntary cost cutting options such as early retirement, job sharing, military leave, reduction in flight pay guarantees and short and long term leaves of absence.

United Parcel Service agreed to the programs and avoided any work furloughs for last year but the issue has come up again.

If the furloughs take place, they will be phased in, with the first group being furloughed in May.

Tonight on Fast Money's Final Trade segment, Tim Seymour said that he is short Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) stock going into tomorrow afternoon's earnings announcement. Analysts are expecting Baidu (BIDU) to report EPS of $1.68. The shares lost 1.24% today, to close at $443.23.

Gary Kaminsky said that he will continue to short athletic apparel retailer Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) tomorrow. Shares of LULU gained 1.14% today and finished at $26.57.

Pete Najarian will be buying Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) during Tuesday's market session. The catalyst for this trade is strong momentum in lumber futures which suggests that the housing market may turn up sooner than expected. Lowe's closed the day slightly higher at $21.76.

Here's a coin that will be without doubt the highlight of every coin collection. German gold seller Global Metal Agency takes reservations for the heaviest gold coin ever produced.
The "Global Liberty" has a fineness of 999.9, weighs 3,333 troy ounces or 103.6 kilos and will cost you a cool €2.99 million or €897 per ounce. I presume this price is subject to change when gold prices start to rise again. Oh, and hurry up, coinage is limited to 3 pieces.

PHOTO: The world's heaviest gold coin displays the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, until 1989 a borderpoint between East and West Berlin until Germany's reunification, on the obverse side. The reverse side is loosely designed after the flag of the United Nations. The diameter of 50 centimeters may be a bit wide for most customer bank vaults.

Once manufactured the Global Liberty will replace the 100 kilo gold coin from the Royal Canadian Mint as the heaviest gold coin. Investors with deep pockets have already made solid profits. The Canadian Mint sold them in 2007 for 1 million Canadian Dollars each. The Royal Canadian mint made the coins - 20 inches in diameter and 1 inch thick - mostly to seize the bragging rights from Austria, which had held the record with a 1000 ounce, 15-inch wide coin. In 2004 the Austrian Mint was awarded the Guinness World Record for the World’s largest gold coin when it struck 15 1000 oz (31.1 kg, 69 pounds) Philharmonics.

CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) announced on Monday that the company would repay $750 million of its "high cost" debt ahead of schedule.

"The company will prepay this high cost debt out of its available holding company cash position, which is in excess of $5 billion," CIT said in a statement.

The board of directors of CIT Group voted to repay repay $750 million of the company's $7.5 billion first lien credit facility.

The prepayment will take place on February 9 and will include a 2% prepayment premium.

Spain’s incumbent telecom carrier Telefonica (TEF) is planning to expand its stake in China Unicom (CHU), the second-largest Chinese wireless carrier. The Spanish telecom giant expects to gradually increase its share in the Chinese company to further boost its foothold in the world’s largest mobile market.

The companies concluded a $1 billion stake purchase in each other’s stock in October 2009. Per the agreement, Telefonica bought roughly 694 million shares in China Unicom while China Unicom purchased 40.7 million Telefonica shares. With the completion of this share-swap transaction, Telefonica’s stake in China Unicom increased to 8.06% from 5.38%. Telefonica plans to eventually expand its stake to 10%.

Additional stake purchase in China Unicom has further consolidated Telefonica’s position as the largest overseas investor in the Chinese company. South Korea’s largest wireless operator SK Telecom (SKM), which was the second-largest investor in China Unicom with a 3.8% share for three years, divested its stake back to the Chinese operator in November 2009 for roughly $1.3 billion.

Telefonica is increasingly focused on expanding into additional emerging markets as it contends with a matured domestic market along with weak economic conditions in its key markets. China, the home to approximately 722 million mobile users, represents Telefonica’s biggest opportunity outside its core European and Latin American markets.

Telefonica entered China in 2005 through its investment in fixed-line operator China Netcom, which was acquired by China Unicom in early 2009 following the restructuring of the Chinese telecom industry in late 2008. Telefonica’s major rival Vodafone (VOD) has a 3.3% stake in China Mobile (CHL), China’s largest wireless carrier.

The expanding collaboration between Telefonica and China Unicom benefits both operators in the form of significant technological and operational synergies. Both these carriers operate their 3G networks based on the popular WCDMA technology. This enables them to jointly develop WCDMA based wireless services. Moreover, the companies may also collaborate for future technology upgrades such as the development of 4G technology.

Read the full analyst report on "TEF"
Read the full analyst report on "CHU"
Read the full analyst report on "SKM"
Read the full analyst report on "VOD"
Read the full analyst report on "CHL"
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